TRACKER
Iran War Monitoring
What Changed
- Iran allows ~30 Chinese-flagged vessels through Hormuz under IRGC supervision — selective enforcement transforms the blockade from binary closure into a sovereign toll gate. IRGC-linked media confirmed overnight transit of approximately 30 vessels. A Chinese supertanker carrying ~2M bbl Iraqi crude completed passage May 13-14 after two months stranded inside the Gulf. Two incompatible sovereignty claims now operate simultaneously over the same waterway.
- Beijing summit produces joint Hormuz statement and pledge not to arm Iran — but no enforcement mechanism, and the selective Chinese transits defined the deal's real boundaries within hours. China agreed Hormuz must remain open, no nuclear weapons for Iran, no Chinese military equipment to Tehran, and increased US oil purchases. The agreement reduces Beijing's Hormuz dependency while granting no mechanism for reopening.
- April CPI at 3.8% — highest since May 2023 — as energy prices drive 40%+ of the headline gain, making the war's economic transmission visible in domestic inflation data. Brent surged 3%+ to $109.26 on escalation rhetoric. Gold fell to ~$4,556 as rate-cut expectations collapsed. 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.12% — highest since June 2007.
- Lebanon-Israel ceasefire extended 45 days after Washington talks — diplomatic runway lengthens while ground reality deteriorates with 400+ killed since April. State Department confirmed the extension. Security and political tracks reconvene May 29 and June 2-3 respectively. Iran's foreign minister said Tehran has 'no trust' in the US, calling contradictory messages the main obstacle to negotiations.
Five Locks
H&M Insurance
SUSPENDED
P&I Club Coverage
EXCLUSION ENDORSED
Cargo Insurance
WITHDRAWN
Crew Consent
REFUSED
Financing Covenants
BLOCKED
0/5 RESTORED
All Five Locks remain shut. Selective Chinese transits through Hormuz do not constitute commercial reopening — they operate under IRGC supervision outside the insurance framework. War-risk premiums unchanged.
From The Insurance War
Three-Layer Chokepoint
Hormuz
CLOSED
Suez / Red Sea
ELEVATED THREAT
Saudi Petroline
ELEVATED THREAT
Hormuz CLOSED to commercial traffic — selective Chinese transits under IRGC supervision do not constitute reopening. Suez/Red Sea at ELEVATED THREAT. Saudi Petroline at ELEVATED THREAT.
From The Houthi Paradox
Houthi Escalation
Houthi posture remains at KINETIC. US-Houthi deal (May 6) constrains US-linked targeting; broader commercial and Israeli-linked targeting preserved.
From The Houthi Paradox
Bold text indicates a value that changed since the previous update.
Key Metrics
| Metric | Current | Baseline |
|---|---|---|
| Days of conflict | 77 | Feb 28 |
| Iran allows ~30 Chinese-flagged vessels through Hormuz under IRGC supervision — selective enforcement, not reopening. Trump-Xi summit: joint Hormuz statement + no-arms pledge, no enforcement mechanism. April CPI 3.8% — energy driving 40%+ of headline. Lebanon ceasefire extended 45 days. Brent +3% to ~$109. | ||
| Five Locks restored | 0/5 | 5/5 |
| Selective Chinese transits operate outside the insurance framework — no lock movement. War-risk premiums unchanged at 5% hull. | ||
| Ceasefire channels | US-Iran bilateral ruptured. Trump-Xi summit concluded — joint Hormuz statement + no-arms pledge, no enforcement mechanism. Lebanon-Israel ceasefire extended 45 days (Washington talks). Iran FM: 'no trust in Americans.' Next talks: security track May 29, political track June 2-3. | — |
| Summit produced language but no enforcement mechanism. Iran FM says trust deficit is main obstacle. Selective Chinese transits tested and defined the deal's real boundaries within hours of announcement. | ||
| US KIA | 13 | 0 |
| Source-pinned: CENTCOM/DCAS canonical. D1: 6 → D10: 13 → D77: 13. No new casualties reported. 7 killed by enemy action + 6 KC-135 crash. 381 wounded (CENTCOM April 8 via Military Times). | ||
| Iranian deaths (HRANA) | 3,636 | 0 |
| HRANA cumulative as of April 7. D17: 3,114 → D35: 3,527 → D38: 3,540 → D40: 3,636 → D77: 3,636 (no new HRANA release in the ceasefire window). 1,701 civilians, 1,221 military, 714 unclassified, including 254 children. | ||
| Lebanon deaths | ~2,920+ killed (Health Ministry) | 0 |
| D46: 2,020+ → D47: 2,124+ → D50: 2,167+ → D57–58: 2,491+ → D59: 2,505+ → D62: 2,533+ → D63: 2,618 → D65: ~2,659+ → D66: ~2,679+ → D70: ~2,690+ → D71: ~2,795+ → D72: ~2,835+ → D74: ~2,890+ → D75: ~2,900+ → D76: ~2,920+ → D77: ~2,920+ (carry-forward). 400+ killed since April ceasefire. Ceasefire extended 45 days. | ||
| Israeli deaths | ~45+ (21+ civilian, ~24+ military) | 0 |
| D55–D57: ~43+ → D58–72: ~44+ → D74–77: ~45+. No fatalities reported May 14-15. | ||
| Strait daily transits | ~30 (May 14-15; IRGC-supervised, Chinese-flagged only) | 153 |
| D40: effectively 0 commercial cargo → D53: ~3 → D58: 19 → D59: 8 → D60: 13 → D61: 13 → D62: 20 → D63–66: 14 → D67: 14 + 2 Project Freedom → D68–70: Project Freedom paused → D71–76: ~2 (both dark) → D77: ~30 (IRGC-supervised, Chinese-flagged). First significant transit volume since closure — selective enforcement, not commercial reopening. Vessels transit under Persian Gulf Strait Authority protocol. | ||
| Ships trapped in Gulf | ~2,000 (IMO); ~23,000 seafarers stranded | 0 |
| IMO official count (April 21). ~23,000 seafarers across ~800 vessels. Saudi Aramco CEO: 600+ tankers stuck inside, 240 waiting outside. DHL: 4-6 months to normalize. | ||
| War-risk insurance | 5% hull | 0.25% |
| Premiums 20x pre-conflict. Selective Chinese transits do not affect war-risk pricing for commercial fleet — they operate outside the insurance framework. | ||
| Hormuz status | CLOSED | OPEN |
| Selective Chinese transits under IRGC supervision do not constitute commercial reopening. Joint Trump-Xi Hormuz statement has no enforcement mechanism. Iran's 30/33 missile sites operational. Status remains CLOSED for commercial traffic. | ||
| Iranian naval vessels destroyed | 136+ (92% of largest vessels per CENTCOM) | 0 |
| D40: 130+ → D67: 136+. No new naval vessel strikes. | ||
| Iranian BM launch rate (vs. Day 1) | −90% | 167/day |
| CENTCOM: 90% decline from Day 1 baseline of 167/day. Ceasefire-period rates. Iran retains 70% of prewar missile stockpile per US intelligence. | ||
| Iranian drone rate (vs. Day 1) | −83% | 541/day |
| CENTCOM: 83% decline from Day 1 baseline of 541/day. Ceasefire-period rates. Russia resupplying drone components via Caspian. | ||
| Ground troops in Iran | 0 (SOF insertion proven) | 0 |
| No ground escalation. Combat restart options under review focus on air/naval, not ground. | ||
| US troops in Middle East | ~75,000+ (three-carrier posture + 15,000 Project Freedom) | ~30,000 |
| D53: ~60,000+ (deploying) → D56: ~60,000+ (three carriers — Bush, Lincoln, Ford) → D61: Ford departing → D63–65: ~60,000+ (two carriers) → D66–72: ~75,000+ (three-carrier posture + 15,000 Project Freedom) → D74–77: ~75,000+. Ford CSG departing for Norfolk. UK HMS Dragon + France Charles de Gaulle + Australia adding multinational presence. | ||
| Iranian oil on water | ~170M bbl (January estimate; current data pending) | 0 bbl |
| Kharg spill ongoing. Two tankers disabled May 8. Second spill (12-20 sq km) compounds primary spill (~80K bbl). | ||
HRANA: Human Rights Activists News Agency, independent Iranian casualty verification network. Military data from CENTCOM and IDF statements, cross-referenced against independent reporting.
Commodities
| Commodity | Current |
|---|---|
| Brent crude | ~$109-111/bbl (May 15; Fortune: $111.04 at 8:45 AM ET; CNBC: $109.26 close) |
| Pre-conflict: $71.32 → D31: $115.35 → D40: ~$96.24 → D48: ~$94.89 → D49: ~$88.90 → D52: ~$94.69 → D53: $95.75 → D54: $99.81 → D55: $103.67 → D57–58: $105.33 → D59: ~$107 → D60: ~$109.96 → D61: ~$118.03 → D62: ~$114.01 (close), $126.41 (intraday high) → D63–65: ~$108.17 → D66: ~$108–111 → D67: ~$112.67 → D68: ~$106.52 (AM), $96.75 (intraday low) → D69: ~$101.96 → D70: ~$100.54 → D71–72: ~$101.29 → D74: ~$105-108 → D75: ~$107-111 → D76: ~$105-108 → D77: ~$109-111. Up ~$3-4 on escalation rhetoric. +53-56% from pre-conflict. | |
| US gasoline | $4.528/gal (AAA, May 15) |
| Pre-conflict: $2.94 → D31: $4.10 → D40: $4.164 → D43–45: $4.16 → D46: ~$4.125 → D47–53: ~$4.08 → D54: $4.04 → D55–58: $4.03 → D59: $4.09 → D60: $4.18 → D61: $4.22 → D62: $4.30 → D63–65: ~$4.03 → D66: $4.45 → D67: $4.46 → D68: $4.483 → D69: $4.536 → D70–71: $4.558 → D72: $4.53 → D74: $4.504 → D75–76: $4.511 → D77: $4.528. +54% from pre-conflict. | |
| Dutch TTF | ~€44/MWh (carry-forward) |
| Pre-conflict: ~€28–29/MWh → D21: €61.90 → D38–41: ~€49.95 → D42–45: ~€44 → D48–54: ~€41.95 → D55: ~€42.39 → D56–57: ~€42 → D58–59: €44.86 → D60: €44.31 → D61: €44.13 → D62–77: ~€44 (carry-forward). | |
| Urea | ~$690.50/t wholesale (carry-forward) |
| Pre-conflict: ~$490 → D21: $683 → D30–54: ~$700 → D55: ~$692.50 → D56–59: ~$694 → D60–77: ~$690.50 wholesale. +49% YoY at retail. Middle East accounts for ~35% of globally traded urea. | |
| EU gas storage | 38.6 bcm / 36.0% capacity (GIE AGSI+, May 14) |
| 2024: 77 bcm → D28: 30.5 → D40: 30.7 → D43: 31.2 → D45: 31.5 → D49: 31.7 → D51: 31.9 → D52: 32.4 → D53: 32.6 → D54: 32.9 → D56: 33.1 bcm / 30.8% → D58–60: 34.1 bcm / 31.8% → D61: 34.3 bcm / 32.0% → D62: 34.9 bcm / 32.5% → D63: 35.1 bcm / 32.7% → D65: 35.5 bcm / 33.1% → D66: 35.8 bcm / 33.4% → D67: 36.3 bcm / 33.8% → D68: 36.5 bcm / 34.1% → D69: 36.7 bcm / 34.2% → D70: 36.8 bcm / 34.3% → D71: 37.3 bcm / 34.7% → D72: 37.6 bcm / 35.0% → D74: 37.9 bcm / 35.4% → D75–76: 38.1 bcm / 35.6% → D77: 38.6 bcm / 36.0%. Slow refill continuing. | |
| Gold | ~$4,556/oz (Yahoo Finance COMEX, May 15) |
| Pre-conflict: ~$5,184 (LBMA PM Fix, Feb 27 close) → D40: ~$4,771 → D49: ~$4,893 → D51: ~$4,880 → D52: ~$4,826 → D53: $4,791 → D54: $4,752 → D55: $4,739.80 → D57: ~$4,722 → D58: $4,741 → D59: $4,694 → D60: $4,590 → D61: $4,550 → D62: $4,634 → D63: $4,622 → D65: $4,644 → D66: $4,579 → D67: $4,562 → D68: $4,690 → D69: $4,737 → D70: $4,736 → D71: $4,731 → D72: $4,680 → D74: $4,686 → D75: $4,704 → D76: ~$4,703 → D77: ~$4,556. Down ~$147. Sharp drop on April CPI 3.8% data crushing rate-cut expectations. −12.1% from pre-conflict. | |
| VIX | ~17.26 (FRED, May 14 close) |
| Pre-conflict: ~20 (Feb 27: 19.86) → D41: 25.78 → D44: 19.23 → D47: 18.36 → D48: 18.17 → D49–50: 17.94 → D51–52: 17.48 → D53: 18.87 → D54: 19.50 → D55: 19.02 → D56: 18.84 → D57–59: 18.71 → D60: 18.60 → D61–62: 17.83 → D63: ~16.55 → D65–67: ~16.99 → D68: ~16.73 → D69: ~17.38 → D70: ~17.39 → D71–72: ~17.08 → D74: ~18.38 (FRED May 11) → D75: ~17.99 (FRED May 12) → D76: ~18.01 (CBOE May 13 close) → D77: ~17.26 (FRED May 14 close). Down 0.75 from D76. −13% from pre-conflict. Sub-18 volatility despite active maritime developments and summit. | |
| VLCC spot rates | $424K–445K+/day (carry-forward) |
| Pre-conflict: $150–170K/day → D28: $445K avg, $770K peak → D30–54: $423K–445K → D55–57: $400K–424K+ → D58–77: $424K–445K+/day. All-time record highs persist. | |
| LNG tanker rates | ~$350,000–400,000+/day (carry-forward) |
| Pre-conflict: ~$40K/day → D28–44: $200–300K range → D45–77: $350K–400K+. Qatar LNG routing constraints. | |
| Helium supply offline | ~33% |
| Pre-conflict: 0% → D4: force majeure → D19: physical damage (Ras Laffan = 33% global). Japan imports at one-year low. Helium spot prices doubled. Semiconductor bottlenecks emerging. | |
| Cape rerouting | +112% (carry-forward) |
| +10–14 days transit, 3,500–4,000 nautical miles per voyage. Structural rerouting becoming sticky — logistics chains adapting to permanent Cape routing. | |
| Ammonia | ~$990–1,250/t (carry-forward) |
| Pre-conflict: ~$480/t (Argus ME FOB) → D3: $590 → D9: $790 → D28: $931 → D30–54: $931–998 → D55–77: $990–1,250. +106–160%. Middle East accounts for ~30% of globally traded ammonia. | |
| Container freight (FBX) | ~$1,875/FEU (carry-forward) |
| Pre-conflict: ~$1,950/FEU (Freightos Week 8) → D29–56: ~$1,946 → D57–59: ~$1,887 → D60–77: ~$1,875. Container routes primarily use Suez not Hormuz. | |
Pre-conflict baselines from verified Feb 27, 2026 closes. Thursday May 15 — markets open. Brent from CNBC/Fortune (May 15 close/trading). Gold from Yahoo Finance COMEX (May 15 — Day 77 supplement). VIX from FRED (May 14 close — Day 77 supplement). US gasoline from AAA (May 15). EU gas storage from GIE AGSI+ (May 14 — Day 77 supplement).
Supply Chain Risk Highlight
Selective Hormuz transits redefine the blockade from binary closure to sovereign toll gate
Iran's decision to allow ~30 Chinese-flagged vessels through the Strait under IRGC supervision transforms the blockade from a binary closure into a sovereign toll gate — Iran decides who passes and under what terms. This does not constitute commercial reopening: the Five Locks framework requires insurance, crew consent, and financing covenants that supervised Chinese transits deliberately bypass. The structural risk is a two-tier maritime system where Chinese vessels transit under a bilateral security arrangement while the global commercial fleet remains locked out. DHL's 4-6 month normalization estimate assumes eventual full reopening; a sustained selective-enforcement regime has no precedent and no normalization timeline.
Last updated: May 15, 2026 · 05:12 GMT. Updated daily from publicly available sources and published reporting. This is not live data. Framework assessments are Second-Order structural analysis. All claims cross-referenced against a minimum of two independent sources.